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Natural Hazardsand Society
Provider: Faculty of Science

Activity no.: 9999-18-00-08
Enrollment deadline: 26/11/2018
PlaceDepartment of Geoscience and Natural Resource Management
Date and time17.12.2018, at: 09:00 - 21.12.2018, at: 16:00
Regular seats45
ECTS credits5.00
Contact personIrina Artemieva    E-mail address: irina@ign.ku.dk
Enrolment Handling/Course OrganiserIrina Artemieva    E-mail address: irina@ign.ku.dk
Enrolment guidelines
This course will use general principles and case studies to explore how we can do better by taking an integrated view of natural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevant geoscience, engineering, economics, and policy formulation separately. We will consider thought-provoking questions that confront the complex issues involved. The proposed course will include the following topics with focus on general principles and an integrated view of natural hazards issues, illustrated by case studies from around the world: 1. A tricky, high-stakes game 2. When nature wins 3. Nature bats last 4. Uncertainty and probability 5. Communicating what we know and don't 6. Human disasters 7. How much is enough? 8. Guessing the odds 9. When's the next earthquake? 10. Assessing hazards 11. Mitigating hazards 12. Choosing mitigation policies 13. Doing better Our recent experience from seven previous International PhD courses (co)organized be me (two in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015) shows that the programme should best be a balanced mixture of lectures, practicals and, every day, structured discussion of the scientific challenges and visions. Class activities will include lectures and practical group exercises to teach students the mathematics of flood, earthquake, and hurricane probabilities. The last day of the course will include a Grand Oxfordian Debate or Disputation between two teams of students on the topics at the core of the course: natural hazards as grand challenges to society.

Formal requirements


Potential participants are required to send the motivation letter and CV as one pdf file to the course organizer (irina@ign.ku.dk), with the subject line "PhD course on hazards".

Exam form and criteria for assessment:
The course has no exam. However, each student is expected to:
• do self-study when preparing to lectures and classes,
• attend all lectures and classes,
• actively participate in class discussions;
• make a short presentation;
• take active part in the Grand Debate on the last day of the course.

Learning outcome
Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones and making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or by using the funds for patient care? What should scientists tell the public when—as occurred in L’Aquila, Italy, and Mammoth Lakes, California— there is a real but small risk of an upcoming earthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles such choices poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us when an earthquake, hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expected from detailed hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmarts us, doing great damage despite expensive mitigation measures or causing us to divert limited resources to mitigate hazards that are overestimated. Much of the problem comes from the fact that formulating effective natural hazard policy involves combining science, economics, and risk analysis to analyze a problem and explore the costs and benefits of different options, in situations where the future is very uncertain. Because mitigation policies are typically chosen without such analysis, the results are often disappointing. The course will provide the students with the current knowledge on natural hazards, risk assessment, and societal response including the mitigation policies.

Lecturers
Guest lectures:
Professor Seth Stein, Northwestern University
Professor Carol Stein, University of Illinois at Chicago
Teacher 1 from UCPH-SCIENCE:
Professor Irina Artemieva

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